Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 9.009997 10.349265 11.792121 13.458813 15.327532 17.354605 19.716253
2025-12-21 6.630158 8.349937 10.350525 12.836509 15.828521 19.298510 23.611282
2025-12-28 5.805689 7.749114 10.120925 13.203409 17.075566 21.748326 27.780113
2026-01-04 5.108841 7.189899 9.842251 13.430248 18.110890 23.958519 31.757771
2026-01-11 4.457232 6.579365 9.391030 13.331749 18.645246 25.485887 34.869397
2026-01-18 3.914364 6.042029 8.964597 13.196668 19.077653 26.857289 37.801135
2026-01-25 3.508991 5.644570 8.676825 13.200096 19.658976 28.413195 41.006820
2026-02-01 3.195156 5.342167 8.486090 13.306220 20.362403 30.139670 44.492267
2026-02-08 2.873948 4.991435 8.187146 13.218844 20.763587 31.441181 47.420050
2026-02-15 2.587434 4.663109 7.888473 13.098197 21.090400 32.629794 50.213982
2026-02-22 2.381278 4.442224 7.732608 13.173863 21.697602 34.230425 53.644100
2026-03-01 2.258941 4.347970 7.765712 13.538050 22.750463 36.516093 58.150078
2026-03-08 2.035362 4.061139 7.469358 13.365216 22.974779 37.596283 60.949956
2026-03-15 1.763276 3.659405 6.947946 12.785791 22.517739 37.613984 62.142872
2026-03-22 1.678600 3.591475 6.987673 13.137135 23.565855 39.980839 66.999108
2026-03-29 1.582009 3.490702 6.960268 13.368150 24.422056 42.074433 71.501849
2026-04-05 1.445901 3.298473 6.752513 13.268218 24.713919 43.273874 74.632741
2026-04-12 1.318738 3.110268 6.535803 13.134346 24.934062 44.356605 77.605138
2026-04-19 1.221276 2.972592 6.401657 13.137530 25.384263 45.823948 81.238666
2026-04-26 1.144660 2.870810 6.327341 13.243297 26.014139 47.605640 85.437835
2026-05-03 1.052974 2.726210 6.157239 13.156253 26.291931 48.800950 88.702344
2026-05-10 0.966122 2.582673 5.977133 13.036114 26.498907 49.876335 91.793495
2026-05-17 0.906086 2.494069 5.901359 13.111464 27.062803 51.578239 95.987222